Heat demand forecasting for concrete district heating system

Abstract

This paper presents the results of an investigation of a model for short-term heat demand forecasting. Forecast of this heat demand course is significant for short-term planning of heat production and it is most important for technical and economic consideration. Weather forecasts are an important input to many heat demand forecasting models. In this paper we propose the forecast model of heat demand based on the assumption that the course of heat demand can be described sufficiently well as a function of the outdoor temperature and the weather independent component (social components). Time of the day affects the social components. The time dependence of the load reflects the existence of a daily heat demand pattern, which may vary for different week days and seasons. Forecast of social component is realized by means of Box-Jenkins methodology. We have studied half-hourly heat demand data, covering a three (four) month period in two concrete district heating systems (DHS) of the Czech Power and Heating company. Comparison of accuracy of the prediction model with inclusion and without inclusion of outdoor temperature for 12 and 24 hours-ahead forecast are presented.