Prediction of heat consumption parameters in distribution network

Abstract

This article analyses methods used typically for controlling the processes in the distribution system of heat energy in the urban agglomeration (SHDC - System of Heat Distribution and Consumption). The key problem in this controlling mechanism consists in transport delay of transferring heat media. Therefore the control mechanism must operate in prediction kind of mode. The two control parameters, or control variables, are temperature of heat carrier and its flow rate. Their time behavior must be predicted for efficient control of the whole heat energy supply. There are many methods used for this prediction. They are briefly described, classified and analyzed in this paper. In more details there are described the methods, developed by authors, which combined procedures for mathematical analysis of historical production data and procedures for modeling of physical features in SHDC. For modeling simulation models are used. Further the results of practical experiments reached with described methods in the concrete real heat distribution system are presented.