Identification of time series model of heat demand using Mathematica environment

Abstract

The paper presents possibility of model design of time series of heat demand course. The course of heat demand and heat consumption can be demonstrated by means of heat demand diagrams. The most important one is the Daily Diagram of Heat Supply (DDHS) which demonstrates the course of requisite heat output during the day. These diagrams are of essential importance for technical and economic considerations. Therefore forecast of the diagrams course is significant for short-term and long-term planning of heat production. The aim of paper is to give some background about analysis of time series of heat demand and identification of forecast model using Time series package which is integrated with the Wolfram Mathematica. The paper illustrates using this package for forecast model identification of heat demand in specific locality. This analysis is utilized for building up a prediction model of the DDHS.