A fuzzy TOPSIS framework for selecting fragile states for support facility

Abstract

Aid recipient-countries especially those classified as ‘fragile states’ look to donor agencies and other financial organizations for various forms of support facilities to rebuild institutions and repair infrastructure. As countries within the fragile states bracket increase around the world, competition for such assistances has also become keen. To select countries for the fragile states support facility run by the African and Asian development banks, expert ratings over sets of unquantifiable performance based criteria are used to determine the ultimate deserving countries. In order to ensure transparency and fairness in the face of competition, such multi-criteria ratings demand techniques that do not only model human judgements but take into account the effect of variations in expert ratings as a result of possible influences. This paper proposes a fuzzy TOPSIS framework for selecting fragile states for support facility based on the African Development Bank selection criteria. Using pre-defined linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers, a numerical example is provided on how the framework can be used by decision makers towards final selection of competing countries for the fragile states support facility. The paper anticipating possible influences of lobbyists, further performs a sensitivity analysis to examine the effect that bias in expert ratings could have on the final selection. The result shows a framework that can be applied in instances of selecting countries and organizations for aid purposes. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.