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dc.title | Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries | en |
dc.contributor.author | Homolka, Lubor | |
dc.contributor.author | Ngo, Minh Vu | |
dc.contributor.author | Pavelková, Drahomíra | |
dc.contributor.author | Le, Tuan Bach | |
dc.contributor.author | Dehning, Bruce | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Research in Transportation Economics | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0739-8859 Scopus Sources, Sherpa/RoMEO, JCR | |
dc.date.issued | 2019 | |
utb.relation.volume | 80 | |
dc.type | article | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.publisher | JAI Press | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.retrec.2019.100752 | |
dc.relation.uri | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885919302641 | |
dc.subject | car registrations | en |
dc.subject | seasonality | en |
dc.subject | forecasting | en |
dc.subject | macroeconomic indicators | en |
dc.subject | socio-economic indicators | en |
dc.subject | vector autoregression | en |
dc.subject | Granger causality | en |
dc.description.abstract | The automotive industry plays a key role in the European economy. In this paper, we determine which macro and socio-economic indicators have significant predictive power on car registrations - a proxy to automotive sector performance - across European countries. Contrary to the current literature which mainly focuses on long-term forecasting, we built our models on the highly seasonal monthly data of a medium-term period to make short-term forecasts. Our approach utilises predictors identified by the literature review. Presented models are built on the Vector Autoregressive models and are accompanied by formal tests, such as the Granger causality test. We have found mixed evidence about the importance of selected predictors as no general patterns were identified. We have found that the most useful predictor is the total number of registrations from the strongest export partner and past registration figures in the analysed country. Car registrations are virtually inelastic to the change of public transportation costs, fuel prices and short-term interest rates offered to households in most of the analysed countries. We have received mixed results about household sentiment across countries. Countries with a higher level of GDP are more sensitive to the changes in unemployment. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd | en |
utb.faculty | Faculty of Management and Economics | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10563/1009243 | |
utb.identifier.obdid | 43880799 | |
utb.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-85073025956 | |
utb.identifier.wok | 000531036900002 | |
utb.source | j-scopus | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-11-20T10:30:32Z | |
dc.date.available | 2019-11-20T10:30:32Z | |
dc.description.sponsorship | Czech Science FoundationGrant Agency of the Czech Republic [16-25536S] | |
utb.contributor.internalauthor | Homolka, Lubor | |
utb.contributor.internalauthor | Ngo, Minh Vu | |
utb.contributor.internalauthor | Pavelková, Drahomíra | |
utb.contributor.internalauthor | Le, Tuan Bach | |
utb.fulltext.affiliation | Lubor Homolka a*, Vu Minh Ngo a, Drahomíra Pavelková a, Bach Tuan Le a, Bruce Dehning b a Tomas Bata University in Zlín, Faculty of Management and Economics, Nám. TGM 5555, 760 01, Zlín, Czech Republic b Chapman University, Argyros School of Business and Economics, One University Drive, Orange, CA, 92866, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: homolka@utb.cz (L. Homolka), ngo@utb.cz (V.M. Ngo), pavelkova@utb.cz (D. Pavelkova), tuan@utb.cz (B.T. Le), bdehning@chapman.edu (B. Dehning). | |
utb.fulltext.dates | Received 6 March 2019 Received in revised form 21 July 2019 Accepted 19 September 2019 | |
utb.fulltext.sponsorship | The authors are thankful for the financial support received from the Czech Science Foundation, Grant No. 16-25536S: Methodology of Developing a Predictive Model of Sector and Company Performance in the Macroeconomic Context. | |
utb.wos.affiliation | [Homolka, Lubor; Vu Minh Ngo; Pavelkova, Drahomira; Bach Tuan Le] Tomas Bata Univ Zlin, Fac Management & Econ, Nam TGM 5555, Zlin 76001, Czech Republic; [Dehning, Bruce] Chapman Univ, Argyros Sch Business & Econ, One Univ Dr, Orange, CA 92866 USA | |
utb.scopus.affiliation | Tomas Bata University in Zlín, Faculty of Management and Economics, Nám. TGM 5555, Zlín, 760 01, Czech Republic; Chapman University, Argyros School of Business and Economics, One University Drive, Orange, CA 92866, United States | |
utb.fulltext.projects | 16-25536S | |
utb.fulltext.faculty | Faculty of Management and Economics | |
utb.fulltext.faculty | Faculty of Management and Economics | |
utb.fulltext.faculty | Faculty of Management and Economics | |
utb.fulltext.faculty | Faculty of Management and Economics | |
utb.identifier.jel | L62 | |
utb.identifier.jel | F44 | |
utb.identifier.jel | E32 |