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A concept of nowcasting of convective precipitation using an X-band radar for the territory of the Zlín Region (Czech Republic)

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dc.title A concept of nowcasting of convective precipitation using an X-band radar for the territory of the Zlín Region (Czech Republic) en
dc.contributor.author Ondík, Irina Malkin
dc.contributor.author Ivica, Lukáš
dc.contributor.author Šišan, Peter
dc.contributor.author Martynovskyi, Ivan
dc.contributor.author Šaur, David
dc.contributor.author Gaál, Ladislav
dc.relation.ispartof Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
dc.identifier.issn 2367-3370 Scopus Sources, Sherpa/RoMEO, JCR
dc.identifier.issn 2367-3389 Scopus Sources, Sherpa/RoMEO, JCR
dc.identifier.isbn 978-3-03-109069-1
dc.date.issued 2022
utb.relation.volume 501
dc.citation.spage 499
dc.citation.epage 514
dc.event.title 11th Computer Science On-line Conference, CSOC 2022
dc.event.location online
dc.event.sdate 2022-04-26
dc.event.edate 2022-04-26
dc.type conferenceObject
dc.language.iso en
dc.publisher Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
dc.identifier.doi 10.1007/978-3-031-09070-7_41
dc.relation.uri https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-09070-7_41
dc.subject radar en
dc.subject CAPPI en
dc.subject nowcasting en
dc.subject class conversion en
dc.subject imbalanced ordinal regression en
dc.subject TITAN en
dc.subject COTREC en
dc.subject persistence en
dc.subject performance metric en
dc.description.abstract The paper presents the first results of precipitation nowcasting that is targeted to a smaller administrative unit in the Czech Republic (Zlin region), to aid better preparedness of the staff of crisis management of the region. The methodology is based on the scans of the X-band radar located at Holegov (240 m above the sea level). More specifically, the CAPPI 2000 data were used, which, in the first step, were converted into a 4-category system of warning classes (0: no event; 1/2/3: weak/moderate/strong events) for all the 13 smaller administrative districts of the region. Besides the radar echo extrapolation method TITAN that is operationally available in the region, a further extrapolation-based nowcasting method (COTREC) was selected and compared with a third approach (Persistence) that supposes no changes in the observed field of precipitation. The predictions of the CAPPI warning classes within the 13 districts with the lead times ranging from 5 to 30 min with 5 min intervals were compared with the observed CAPPI warning classes. Since the analysis was carried out in the framework of imbalanced ordinary regression, several issue-specific binary metrics had to be developed. Our first results indicate that the COTREC model outperformed the TITAN method, both in terms of the POD (probability of detection) and FAR (false alarm ratio) statistics, for all the lead times and the relevant binary metrics. Further we found that the reliability of the predictions sharply decreases with increasing lead times, and they are of low practical usability beyond the horizon of 30-40 min. en
utb.faculty Faculty of Applied Informatics
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10563/1011087
utb.identifier.obdid 43884095
utb.identifier.scopus 2-s2.0-85135034297
utb.identifier.wok 000893645700041
utb.source d-scopus
dc.date.accessioned 2022-08-17T13:17:25Z
dc.date.available 2022-08-17T13:17:25Z
dc.description.sponsorship VI20192022134; Ministerstvo Vnitra České Republiky
dc.description.sponsorship Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic within the program `Security Research Programme of the Czech Republic [VI20192022134]
utb.contributor.internalauthor Šaur, David
utb.fulltext.sponsorship This work was supported by the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic within the program ‘Security Research Programme of the Czech Republic in 2015−2022’ (project no. VI20192022134 ‘System of more accurate prediction of convective precipitation over the regional territorial unit’).
utb.wos.affiliation [Ondik, Irina Malkin; Ivica, Lukas; Sisan, Peter; Martynovskyi, Ivan; Gaal, Ladislav] MicroStep MIS, Cavojskeho 1, Bratislava 84104, Slovakia; [Saur, David] Tomas Bata Univ Zlin, Fac Appl Informat, Stranemi 4511, Zlin 76001, Czech Republic
utb.scopus.affiliation MicroStep-MIS, Čavojského 1, Bratislava, 841 04, Slovakia; Faculty of Applied Informatics, Tomáš Bat’a University in Zlín, Nad Stráněmi 4511, Zlín, 760 01, Czech Republic
utb.fulltext.projects VI20192022134
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