Assessing the risk of a terrorist attack against a soft target: The use of expert opinion in threat assessment

Abstract

The article reviewed the methods for assessing the risks of a terrorist attack against a soft target. Considering the number of factors affecting the choice of a target by a terrorist group or individual terrorists and the limited usability of historical data on previous terrorist attacks, the article further focuses on the possibility of using expert opinion on the importance of criteria for identifying soft targets. For this purpose, a questionnaire survey was conducted at the regional police directorates of the Police of the Czech Republic. Based on the survey results, the level of security, the number of persons, and its symbolic significance were identified as the most important criteria for selecting a soft target as a target of a terrorist attack.