Relationship between fintech by Google search and bank stock return: a case study of Vietnam

Abstract

Due to the ongoing global debate regarding the relationship between fintech and banks, including developing countries, this study aims to investigate this relationship in the case of Vietnam, an emerging nation. The study analyzes the relationship between fintech search and bank stock returns, which are measures of fintech and banks, respectively. The time series data for fintech and bank stock returns were obtained from Google Trends and Vietstock, respectively. Exploratory factor analysis was utilized to derive the fintech variables, while the bank stock return variable was calculated using a basket of eight listed banks from 2017w46 to 2021w46. The results were estimated using the vector autoregression and Granger causality method and validated with the copula method. A key finding of this study is the presence of a simultaneous negative change and bidirectional causality between bank stock returns and fintech lending. Furthermore, several other interesting findings were discovered: (1) the causal relationship from fintech to bank stock returns is weaker compared with the opposite direction; (2) unidirectional causality exists between different types of fintech, such as influence from FinFintech to FinLending, from FinPayment to FinLending and FinWallet, from FinMoney to FinFintech, from FinWallet to FinLending, and from FinProduct to FinFintech; and (3) there is an equal occurrence of simultaneous increase or decrease between bank stock returns and certain types of fintech, specifically between BankReturn and FinPayment, BankReturn and FinLending, as well as BankReturn and FinWallet. These findings shed light on the complex relationship between fintech and banks, offering insights that contribute to our understanding of this dynamic interplay in the context of Vietnam’s emerging fintech landscape.